The 14-day ceasefire between the US and Iran has failed to bring about a resumption of normal shipping traffic in the Gulf
Any hopes that the ceasefire between the US and Iran would see a quick resumption of transits of the Strait of Hormuz have been dashed.
Over 24 hours on from the announcement of the ceasefire which the US President Trump said would be conditional on the re-opening the Strait of Hormuz very little commercial shipping traffic has moved through the waterway.
Looking at AIS tracking data from Pole Star Global the few transits of the Strait that have been seen since the ceasefire took effect most of the vessels have called at Iranian ports.
Overall international traffic would appear to have reduced from a few days earlier with Windward recording 20 transits of the Strait in a 24-hour period on 5 April, the highest since the conflict started on 28 February. These were transits approved by the Iranians either with the payment of a toll through what the so-called Tehran Tollbooth or with governments, primarily in Asia, that have agreed safe passage of vessels with Iran’s government.
Following the ceasefire far from a restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait shipping faces a confused picture of Iran saying it still controls transits and will charge a toll. There have also been reports VHF Channel 16 radio messages to vessels threatening their destruction if attempting to transit the Strait without Iranian approval.
There is also the danger that the ceasefire will not hold, particularly given Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, despite mediator Pakistan saying it was part of the ceasefire agreement.
Iranian news agency FARS reported that on Wednesday afternoon Iran halted allowing tanker traffic in the Strait as a result of Israel attacking Lebanon in the violation of the temporary ceasefire. It reported that earlier in the day Iran had given permission for two tankers to transit the Strait.
Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organistion has issued notice that vessels intending to transit the Strait of Hormuz are required to coordinate with Iranian naval forces and has designated the alternatives routes passing north of Iran’s Larak island inbound and south of Larak island when exiting the Gulf. The Iranian authority warns that the traditional route through the Strait further south is a hazardous area and restricted to all traffic, although it is unclear if the area really is mined.
According to AXSMarine some 959 vessel are positioned west of the Strait of Hormuz inside the Gulf down from a peak of 1,016 vessels but noted it still represented a “significant backlog”.